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2023

Global EV Transportation Review

Key Regional Markets

Germany

The German automotive market, being Europe’s largest, holds significance for the transition towards electric drivetrain. The trend in vehicle registrations points to electrification taking root. Sustaining this growth to achieve the targeted level might become the next central area of focus. The steady demand and sale of electric vehicles could overwhelm the charging network unless timely measures are taken for expansion. Also in focus is the market’s dependence on subsidies, which is being tested with the government rolling back the incentives.

GDP (Current Prices) USD (2021)

4,262.77 bn

GDP Growth Forecast (constant prices) (2021-2025)

1.51%

EV Penetration

31% of total new passenger vehicle registrations by 2022

EV Target

15 million electric vehicles in the transportation system by 2030

Planned Year of Phasing Out ICE Vehicles
2035

GDP Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook

EV Penetration and Trend

Electric Vehicle Registrations and Penetration

Source: Federal Motor Transport Authority (KBA)

According to Germany’s Federal Motor Transport Authority (KBA), the share of electric vehicles, comprising both battery-electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, reached closer to one-third of the total new vehicle registrations in 2022. The steady growth in electric vehicle registrations was in the backdrop of a declining trend in overall vehicle registrations -from 3.6 million units in 2019 to 2.7 by the end of 2022. The receding share of Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) is thus evident in the German market.

Source: Association of Danish Car Importers

The rising trend in penetration of electric vehicles is also marked by growth in battery-electric vehicles. By 2022, battery-electric vehicles held an 18% share in total registrations, contrasting the negligible 0.7% in 2017. By the end of 2022, plug-in vehicle registrations grew 11% year-on- year, while the same for battery- electric vehicles was 32%. In 2021, the growth rates were even higher.

As subsidies are tapered off, the growth momentum will likely moderate further. As of January 2023, registrations were significantly lower than those of the previous year, indicating a short-term impact of the subsidy rationalization. Meanwhile, the supply side stays robust, with several leading automotive OEMs announcing a complete shift to electric vehicle production.

The commercial segment of electric transport remains equally strong. Germany is among the leading countries in the European Union in terms of growth in electric buses. Traction in this market is led primarily by federal funding for procuring zero-emission vehicles (electric and fuel cell).

Charging Infrastructure

Source: European Alternative Fuels Observatory

Germany ranks among the region’s top countries for the charging infrastructure put in place. At 1.27 charging bays per square km, Berlin stood sixth in the top ten European capital cities (as of July 2022) for the charging network’s density. Other high network- density German provinces include Bayern, Nordrhein-Westfalen, and Baden–Württemberg. Besides the metropolitan areas, the cities adjoining or housing the automotive manufacturing majors have benefitted from the expansion in the charger base.

A multitude of players, including independent charging operators, electrical OEMs, and auto manufacturers, among others, leads the expansion of the network. The scope remains enormous. At a policy level, the ratio of charging points to electric vehicles is aimed at 1:15 to be able to make a dent in electrification in overall mobility. The European Union’s recommended ratio is 1:10. Germany, in this regard, has a lot of catching up in network expansion.

The fast-charging segment is of significant focus for both policy authorities and businesses. About 2,000 charging operators run the network (as of end-2021), which could change as tenders are issued for expansion. Particularly important is the expansion of charging facilities for commercial use. For instance, an ongoing government-funded project involves a corridor of a fast- charging network for battery-electric long-distance trucks.

Policy Regulation

The stated policy target is to ensure at least 15 million electric vehicles in the country’s transportation system by 2030. Most of this (tentatively about 10 million) is supposed to be based on battery-electric. Further, the overarching policy goal is the European Union’s planned ban on the sale of new ICE-based vehicles by 2035. So far, subsidy support and related incentives have helped boost electric vehicle adoption. Lately, though, the subsidy regime has faced a rationalization. From 2023, the government reduced the allocated subsidy payout for electric vehicles.

For vehicles with a list price below €40,000, the incentive is capped at €6,750 (purchase subsidy payout of €4,500 and €2,250 from the manufacturer), while none is available for the plug-in hybrids. For the vehicles with a list price of up to €65,000, the corresponding incentive is worth €4,500 (subsidy payout of €3,000 and the rest from the manufacturer). Notably, from September 2023, the incentives will be restricted to private buyers. Further reduction in subsidy support is planned from next year.

Charging infrastructure attracts significant policy attention. The government thus has various incentives and programmes to ensure a timely rollout of the charging infrastructure. While national-level measures are being taken to enable private participation, the local or municipal-level incentives make the difference. Some notable cities/municipalities taking the lead in the available incentives include Nordrhein-Westfalen, Munich, Hannover, and Limburg.

There are some incentives available for the residential charging sub-segment. A €900 grant is available for the purchase and installation of a home charging setup. Federal Ministry for Digital and Transport (BMDV) has a €500 million budgeted outlay to fund individual project applications meant for public charging infrastructure. The funding, covering up to 60% of the project cost, will aid the construction of new public charging points and the related aspects of securing grid connection. The funding scheme will run till 2025.

Market Opportunity

The fast-charging network is increasingly gaining traction with greater policy attention and funding. In February 2023, the European Commission officially released its approval for the German €1.8 billion bidding scheme for the nationwide rollout of a fast-charging network. The planned tender, led by Federal Ministry for Digital and Transport (BMDV), is for constructing and operating charging stations in 23 regional lots across 900 pre-defined locations. Each bidder could be potentially awarded contracts as a charging point operator for construction and operation across a maximum of three regional lots. At least eight operators will be awarded contracts under this scheme to ensure competition.

Private sector investments are meanwhile in progress to tap into the demand. BP Pulse’s (part of the hydrocarbon major BP group) projects are notable in this regard. Through its German retail brand Aral, BP Pulse is building fast-charging corridors for electric trucks along the major logistical routes. In January 2023, the first such corridor, involving six ultra-fast (300kW) charging points, was launched along a 600km length of the Rhine-Alpine freight route. The charging corridor is expected to be the first in a series of charging points to cater to the nascent but rapidly emerging sub-segment of battery-electric medium and heavy commercial vehicles.

Earlier, another hydrocarbon major, Shell, announced investment toward expanding the fast-charging network. In mid-2022, the equipment manufacturer ABB and Shell announced the launch of a nationwide network of the Terra 360 brand of fast-chargers, also held by the company as the world’s fastest in its segment. Such chargers have a maximum rated capacity of 360kW. Notably, the planned fast-charging network will be fully supported with renewable energy-based electricity.

Company Capacity Investment Highlights
CATL 8GWh (first phase)
14GWh (next/final phase)
The Lithium-Ion battery production started in December 2022. Total investment estimated at €1.8 billion.
Volkswagen-Northvolt 16GWh (first phase) Part of €30 billion investment commitment for series of battery factories in Europe. The German plant could be online by 2025.
SVOLT 24GWh A battery cell manufacturing facility that is presently running in a delayed schedule. Production is expected by 2027.
BMW Expansion of Leipzig-based battery assembly line done at an investment of €70 million. New battery assembly plant in Bavaria, in planning stages. With regulatory approvals, construction could commence by 2024.

In December 2022, another company, ADS-TEC Energy, announced the launch of ChargePost – a compact battery-based charging system enabling fast-charging without depending on the utility’s grid supply. Each such station is equipped with two charging points of up to 300kW DC-based power and offers an alternative solution for locating charging points where a conventional grid-based connection could be expensive or time-consuming.

The wireless or induction-based charging system is finding traction, partly with policy support. With €3.2 million in public funding, the company Electreon, in collaboration with the infrastructure provider EnBW, is setting up a pilot project in the city of Balingen. It will test the feasibility of dynamically charging an electric bus over a kilometer-long stretch equipped with two static charging stations. Notably, this project follows a successful pilot based on the same technology in Karlsruhe.

Localized battery availability, among other components, is a critical prerequisite for automotive suppliers to address the upcoming electric vehicle transition effectively. The German manufacturing space is thus gradually gearing up, with some significant investment commitments underway from battery manufacturers, automakers, and others. CATL’s 8GWh Lithium-Ion plant is the recent one to have been commissioned. Others, such as Tesla, have been in the fray though the global competition for such investments, especially from the US, makes it slightly uncertain for the time being.

The boost in manufacturing is also underway through the automotive companies seeking timely expansion in the production lines. In May 2022, Volkswagen Group launched its second electric vehicle site in Germany at an outlay of about €1 billion. Furthermore, the company plans to set up an electric mobility center in the German province of Lower Saxony by 2026, with an estimated total investment of €21 billion. Reflecting the rising competition in the market, the Chinese electric vehicle and battery company BYD is in the process of discussing the planned acquisition of Ford Motor’s German manufacturing facility. While Ford’s strategic decision is to re-align existing facilities for electric vehicle production, BYD’s planned acquisition, if successful, could add to the competition in the local industry.

The target of 15 million electric vehicles by 2030 is a tall order, considering that so far, the achieved level is at around 1 million. The subsequent growth stage is critically dependent on multiple factors, including the price competitiveness of the electric vehicles, the ease of charging access, and the overall product variety and demand. The economic environment and other external challenges add to the potential impediments to targeted growth.

There are concerns about lowering subsidies at the current stage of growth. The January 2023 decline in electric vehicle registration is cited as one pointer in this direction. Subsidies helped push sales during December 2022, due to last-minute purchases before the reduction of incentives at the start of 2023. The Association of the Automobile Industry projects an 8% year-on-year decline in sales by the end of 2023, primarily concentrated on plug-in hybrids.

The upcoming investment landscape in the German electric vehicle market might warrant deliberate policy attention, considering the competition from other leading markets such as the US. Established entities such as Volkswagen and Tesla are already actively considering options in the US due to the attractive incentives. The rising energy costs in the country are an additional dampening factor for the typical energy-intensive Gigafactory projects in the pipeline. Prospective investors will keenly watch this progress as similar concerns prevail across the European Union.

Outlook

The target of 15 million electric vehicles by 2030 is a tall order, considering that so far, the achieved level is at around 1 million. The subsequent growth stage is critically dependent on multiple factors, including the price competitiveness of the electric vehicles, the ease of charging access, and the overall product variety and demand. The economic environment and other external challenges add to the potential impediments to targeted growth.

There are concerns about lowering subsidies at the current stage of growth. The January 2023 decline in electric vehicle registration is cited as one pointer in this direction. Subsidies helped push sales during December 2022, due to last-minute purchases before the reduction of incentives at the start of 2023. The Association of the Automobile Industry projects an 8% year-on-year decline in sales by the end of 2023, primarily concentrated on plug-in hybrids.

The upcoming investment landscape in the German electric vehicle market might warrant deliberate policy attention, considering the competition from other leading markets such as the US. Established entities such as Volkswagen and Tesla are already actively considering options in the US due to the attractive incentives. The rising energy costs in the country are an additional dampening factor for the typical energy-intensive Gigafactory projects in the pipeline. Prospective investors will keenly watch this progress as similar concerns prevail across the European Union.