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2023

Global Onshore Wind Market Report

Key Regional Markets

Brazil

Onshore Wind Capacity

15.3 GW

GDP (Current Prices) USD (2022)

1,924.13bn

GDP Growth Forecast (constant prices) (2023-2027)

1.67%

Currency

Brazilian Real

Country Credit Rating (S&P)

BB-

Renewable Energy capacity (2022)

175.3GW

Onshore Wind Share in Renewables (2022)
14%
Renewable Energy Target

Achieve 50% renewable power in the energy mix and 88% of electricity demand from renewable sources by 2030

Brazil has long been a leader in promoting renewable energy within the Latin American region. In 2022, renewables accounted for an impressive 84% of the country’s installed electricity capacity (IRENA, 2023). This significant contribution to clean energy is due to Brazil’s favourable geographic locations, abundant natural resources, and well-designed government initiatives. These factors have collectively propelled Brazil into the top ten countries by renewable energy capacity.

Brazil’s primary renewable energy source is hydropower, followed by onshore wind and solar photovoltaics. The Brazilian Energy Planning Agency (EPE) has set ambitious targets in its Energy Expansion Plan (PDE) for 2021-2031 (ITA, 2023). This plan aims to increase the share of renewables in the energy matrix to 50% by 2031, achieve an 88% coverage of electricity demand from renewable sources by 2030, and ultimately attain full decarbonization by 2050 (Politica Por Inteiro, 2022). Meeting these goals will require substantial contributions from wind energy.

In response to these targets, Brazil has witnessed a recent surge in wind energy initiatives, capturing the attention of foreign investors and developers. This increased investor interest could drive significant growth in wind power capacity, with projections suggesting it could exceed 200GW by 2050 (InterSolar). Brazil’s commitment to renewable energy and its favourable conditions make it a promising and attractive market for the expansion of wind energy in the coming years.

Pros

  • Implementation of new policy frameworks and PPA promotions for onshore wind deployment

  • New transmission investment set to unlock new hybrid capacity to allow for greater renewables penetration

Cons

  • Lack of operational performance amplifies the issues in energy pricing and transmission connectivity

  • Shift in regulatory planning towards green hydrogen and offshore wind tend to threaten onshore wind pipeline

Renewable Energy Mix

Source: IRENA Renewable Capacity Statistics July 2023

As of 2022, Brazil boasts a robust renewable sector, with an impressive installed capacity of over 175GW (IRENA, 2023). The clean energy landscape’s traditional reliance on hydropower has lately declined due to frequent droughts and stringent policies regarding floods, which hindered the progress of hydroelectric projects. The share of hydropower in Brazil’s energy mix has thus declined over the years as investment in other sources increased.

Amongst the notable increase in the contribution of non-hydro renewable technologies, a key component is onshore wind energy. Over the last decade, onshore wind’s share of the energy mix has surged by 12%, making Brazil a leading wind energy producer in the Latin American (LATAM) region. Remarkably, in 2022, a staggering 80% of the new capacity additions in the LATAM region came from Brazil’s wind energy initiatives (IRENA, 2023).

Despite these advancements, Brazil’s renewable portfolio still needs diversification. To attain a more diversified and sustainable energy landscape, Brazil must focus on enhancing existing technologies, investing in research and development, and fostering innovation within the renewable energy sector. These initiatives are crucial to meeting the nation’s ambitious goals and ensuring a resilient, low-carbon future for Brazil.

Installed Capacity: Status and Trend

Trend in Installed Onshore Wind Capacity

Source: Preqin Global Report 2023: Private Equity

Over the past decade, Brazil’s onshore wind installed capacity has experienced remarkable growth, increasing by 11-fold from 2013 to 2022. Despite facing challenges such as the cancelled auctions between 2015 and 2017, the sector demonstrated resilience, bouncing back with an average annual capacity addition of approximately 3.5GW in 2021 and 2022 (IRENA, 2023). This consistent growth led to a cumulative installed capacity surpassing 24GW in 2022.

In 2022, there was a slight dip in capacity additions. This decline was influenced by reduced interest from corporate off-takers and investors, primarily due to rising costs, low ceiling prices, and a transition towards solar PV and offshore wind (Energy Global, 2023). Despite this, the onshore wind sector shows significant promise for expansion.

By the first quarter of 2023, the industry had 1.4GW of wind capacity addition. Furthermore, the Brazilian government’s plans to auction onshore wind projects in 2023 could expedite capacity additions (GreenTechLead, 2023). These initiatives, coupled with ongoing efforts to address challenges and create a conducive environment for investment, are anticipated to sustain the growth momentum of Brazil’s onshore wind industry.

Demand Drivers

Strategic regulatory measures have bolstered Brazilian renewable energy initiatives in recent years. Brazilian lawmakers introduced a ground-breaking incentive program in early Q1 2022, allocating RBL500 million to promote wind and solar photovoltaic projects nationwide. Furthermore, the Energy National Plan 2030 outlined comprehensive strategies to expand sustainable energy cost-effectively over the next decade (DPC BRAZIL, 2022).

Building on these initiatives, the National Bank for Economic and Social Development (BNDES) announced significant financing for the renewable sector in early 2023. This funding encompassed two wind farm complexes and one solar farm complex, collectively boasting a capacity of 1.5GW and requiring a total investment of R$10.6 billion. Notably, R$3.5 billion of this funding was channelled through the BNDES FINEM program, signalling a substantial commitment to renewable energy expansion. Robust transmission infrastructure and focus on local sourcing support project development (BNDES BRAZIL, 2023).

Brazil’s unregulated free energy market is a linchpin for the growth of onshore wind projects. This market dynamic, bolstered by bilateral Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs), has instilled confidence among investors. To achieve its ambitious target of adding approximately 17.8GW of onshore wind capacity between 2023 and 2035 (Energy Global, 2023), Brazil is actively leveraging bilateral PPAs. According to Clean Energy Latin America (CELA), a substantial portion of Brazil’s wind and solar PV capacity, around 10.7GW (41%), operates under bilateral PPAs (PV MAGAZINE, 2022). This dominance of the free market signifies a promising trend expected to outperform in the years ahead.

Brazil’s demand for International Renewable Energy Certificates (I-REC) has increased remarkably (Argus Media, 2023). In Q1 2023 alone, the I-REC market witnessed a significant uptick, reaching 13.96TWh compared to 8.5TWh in 2022. This surge catapulted Brazil to the top position globally, surpassing even China. Over the last three years, the issuance of I-REC certificates more than doubled, rising from 4 million to 9.5 million (Atlas Renewable Energy, 2022). Wind power projects have been pivotal role in this growth, accounting for half of the issued certificates.

The I-REC demand could soar higher with rising corporate carbon disclosure requirements and stringency in carbon credit regulations. Such a trend could drive significant growth in generation capacity as companies focus on reducing their carbon footprint, with the added benefit of certificates’ revenue.

Market Opportunity

Brazil’s wind industry has attracted about US$35.8 billion in investments over the past decade (EVWIND, 2023). In 2023, BNDES announced a R$907 million investment to develop four wind farms in Rio Grande do Norte (IEA, 2023).

International collaboration also plays a pivotal role in Brazil’s renewable energy expansion. Brazil’s Neoenergia secured EUR200 million in assistance from the European Investment Bank (EIB) for a major project encompassing a 715.5MW wind park and solar power plant (EIB, 2022). An expanding project pipeline will drive the next wave of investment. There are 86 onshore wind projects at various stages of development, collectively amounting to $35 billion in investment (AirSwift, 2023). Major corporations like Energia, AES, Enel, and Iberdrola have ambitious expansion plans in the country, further enriching the project pipeline.

The renewable energy sector’s resilience is evident through various mergers and acquisitions. Equinor, a prominent energy company, acquired 200MW of a wind farm in July 2023, adding to its impressive portfolio, which includes a 1.2GW capacity pipeline of onshore wind and solar projects in Brazil (Power Technology, 2023). Similarly, Engie Brasil Energia made a strategic move in 2022 by acquiring the 846MW Serra do Assuruá onshore wind farm from PEC Energia SA for B$265 million (Wind Power Monthly, 2022), underscoring the industry’s stability and positive trajectory.

The country’s transmission network may impose a constraint on the planned wind power capacity addition. To address this issue, the Brazilian government unveiled an ambitious plan in March 2023, outlining a R$50 billion (US$9.5 billion) investment in developing new transmission lines and related infrastructure (PV TECH, 2023). The focus of the planned power transmission projects is to support upcoming wind and solar projects, including hybrid (wind-solar) deployments. Furthermore, foreign companies such as Iberdrola and Singaporean investment firm GIC signed agreements in 2023 to develop extensive transmission networks spanning thousands of kilometres in Brazil. These initiatives, including a US$13.4 million investment by ENGIE in a 1,006km transmission line in the northeastern region, would enhance power offtake capabilities and ensure grid stability (NS ENERGY, 2023).

Outlook

Projected Onshore Wind Builds

Source: BNEF Global Wind Market Outlook

Brazil’s onshore wind sector has gained significant momentum due to favourable government regulations and untapped resource potential, particularly in the Northeast region (EVWIND, 2020). Brazil ranks sixth globally in terms of cumulative installed capacity, with a strong focus on onshore wind technology. Despite varying projections from different energy agencies regarding future capacity additions, onshore wind remains a key player in Brazil’s energy mix.

However, the sector faces challenges such as supply chain bottlenecks, fluctuating exchange rates, a shortage of skilled labour, high inflation, and interest rates (RIGZONE, 2022). These factors have impacted project costs and profitability. Additionally, inefficient grid infrastructure has hindered project development, leading to decreased investor interest. The emergence of offshore wind and hydrogen technologies, along with the competitive rise of solar energy, further complicates the landscape for the onshore wind power market.

Nevertheless, falling Levelized Cost of Energy in the Latin American region ensures the long-term viability of onshore wind projects (STATISTA, 2023). The Northeast region’s abundant wind potential continues to attract investors and developers, offering a promising outlook for the sector’s growth. Despite challenges, Brazil’s onshore wind industry remains resilient, driven by its economic viability and the nation’s commitment to renewable energy.

Key Regional Markets
Global Onshore Wind Report
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