Italy
Although the Italian SAF market is still in its early development stages, it is progressing rapidly due to the aviation sector’s need for decarbonization, driven by the country’s high air traffic volume. This underscores the importance of adopting SAF to mitigate aviation’s environmental impact. Italy is targeting an ambitious SAF production capacity of 150,000 tons by 2024, demonstrating its commitment to fostering a robust SAF industry (A&D Market Reports, 2023).

GDP (Current Prices) USD (2023) | 2,256 Bn |
Real GDP Growth Forecast (2024-2028) | 0.53% |
10-year Govt Bond Yield (12-month rolling average) | 4.17 |
Country Credit Rating | BBB |
Average Daily Flights | 3,500 |
Existing Fuel Consumption | 5.22 million metric tons |
Usage Mandate | |
Projected SAF Capacity Under Development (MT/Year) | 150,000 by 2024 |
Policy Support | Politecnico di Torino and the Italian
Ministry signed an agreement
to promote the use of SAF in the
transport sector |
Aviation Industry Backdrop
In 2023, Italy ranked fifth in Europe for daily average flight numbers, with 3,500 arrivals and departures, which is 3.0% below pre-COVID levels but 11.0% higher than in 2022 (Eurocontrol, 2023). Italian airports accommodated a record 197.2 million passengers in 2023, a 2.1% increase compared to the previous record set in 2019, marking a full revival of the international segment (Schengen.News, 2024). In November 2023, Italy’s jet fuel sales surpassed pre-pandemic levels, signalling a potential boost for air travel (Bloomberg, 2023). The growth of the aviation sector is anticipated to persist, with the annual jet fuel demand projected to reach 5,467 kton in 2025 and 5,740 kton in 2030 (Roland Berger, 2024).
With the surge in fuel consumption resulting from the ongoing expansion, the aviation sector has become a significant source of emission, posing a growing environmental challenge. Italy ranked as the 15th largest source of passenger-related aviation emissions globally in September 2022, with c.1.0 million tonnes of CO2 emitted (RDC Aviation Ltd, 2022). As the sector continues to expand, it becomes increasingly urgent to focus on decarbonization to address the mounting environmental issues.
In the path to decarbonizing the aviation sector, Italy, ranking fifth in Europe for biofuel production, is leveraging its existing capabilities to support the broader adoption of sustainable biofuels in aviation. This effort includes participation in international agreements like the Turin Joint Statement on Sustainable Biofuels, which seeks to emphasize actions for G7 countries to accelerate sustainable biofuel deployment to align with a net-zero pathway by mid-century (IEA Bioenergy, 2023) (Roland Berger, 2024).
SAF, with its potential to play a relevant role in decarbonizing the aviation sector, is expected to rapidly scale up, supported by regulations. SAF incorporation targets have been set at 2.0% yearly between 2025-29 and 6.0% in 2030, in line with ReFuelEU (Roland Berger, 2024).
Source: OECD.Stat, 2024
Note: Thousand tonnes of CO2-equivalent
Policy Regulation
Italy’s national legislation on SAF closely aligns with EU laws aimed at reducing emissions in the transportation sector. The Italian Civil Aviation Authority (ENAC) established the “National Observatory on SAF” to create a technical board involving key ministries and stakeholders interested in SAF development. In 2022, ENAC collaborated with these stakeholders to define a “Roadmap on SAF in Italy,” focusing on potential incentive policies and aligning with the “ RefuelEU Aviation” context (ENAC, 2023).
In April 2022, “The Pact for the Decarbonisation of Air Transport” was established to help the aviation industry meet sustainability targets, aiming for Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (Decarbonizzazione Trasporto Aereo, n.d.). This initiative, launched by Decarbonizzazione Del Trasporto Aereo, involves key players such as airlines, airports, fuel producers, and government organizations. The pact emphasises stakeholder cooperation in transitioning to sustainable air transport, promoting public-private partnerships for low-carbon technologies, and implementing policies that incentivise sector decarbonisation (Logistica, 2023).
Further, the Italian government, in conjunction with EU funding programs like Horizon Europe and the European Green Deal, is providing substantial financial support to SAF projects. These funds are aimed at research, development, and scaling up production capacities, ensuring that Italy remains competitive in the global SAF market.
Market Opportunity
The Italian SAF market presents a promising opportunity for growth and development, driven by collaborative efforts of biofuel producers, aviation companies, research institutions, and government agencies. The market benefits from international collaborations, joint R&D initiatives, and technology transfers, enhancing expertise and boosting the country’s competitiveness in the global SAF market (A&D Market Reports, 2023).
Leading Italian energy companies, such as GreenOil and EcoFuel, are investing heavily in SAF production by converting refineries and leveraging advanced technologies to improve efficiency and sustainability. These companies are also forming partnerships with technology providers and research institutions to enhance their production capacity. For example, Italian energy company Eni has partnered with Rome’s airport operator, Aeroporti di Roma (ADR), to supply sustainable fuels for both aircraft and ground vehicles (Warwick, 2021).
Airlines, including Alitalia and Air Italy, are actively participating in SAF projects by forming alliances with fuel producers to secure SAF supplies and reduce their carbon footprint. These collaborations often include long-term purchase agreements and joint research efforts to optimize SAF use in commercial flights. For example, in January 2024, Ryanair and Enilive announced a letter of intent for the long-term supply of up to 100,000 tons SAF at selected Ryanair airports across Italy (SAF Investor, 2024). Additionally, to encourage the use of SAF, airport operator SEA Prime announced in May 2024 that it would offer a € 1,000 incentive to SAF purchasers at its airports. The incentive is available from the second half of 2024 with a cap of €50,000 (SAF Investor, 2024).
With the growing project pipeline, strategic planning, policy support, and collaboration among stakeholders, Italy is well-positioned to sustain and enhance its competitive edge in the SAF market. As the demand for sustainable aviation fuel continues to rise, Italy’s SAF industry is poised for significant growth and development in the coming years.
Company | Collaborating Entities | Project Details |
---|---|---|
MeSAF | Aalborg Airport, Kosan Gas, Vertimass and European Energy | A pilot plant is to be established in Aalborg, which will start producing SAF from 2024. The SAF will be produced from CO2 and green hydrogen and will pave the way for Denmark’s first 100.0% SAF-fuelled domestic flight route (Kosan Gas, 2023) |
First commercial eFuels-for- aviation plant in Denmark | Arcadia eFuels, Sasol, Topsoe, KGAL GmBH | Once operational in 2026, the plant will deliver eFuels for the Danish and European aviation markets. The plant will be located in Vordingborg and will produce ~100.0 million litres of eFuels annually (Biofuels International, 2023) (Renewables Now, 2023) (KGAL GmbH & Co., 2023) |
Green Fuels for Denmark | $Ørsted, DSV, Maersk and DFDS, Copenhagen Airports, SAS, Topsoe, Neste, HOFOR , BIOFOS, CTR and VEKS | Major Power-to-X (PtX) project; large-scale production of sustainable eFuels (Bioenergy International, 2022) (Ørsted, n.d.) |
eSAF facility | Metafuels AG, European Energy | Synthetic sustainable aviation fuel (eSAF) facility near Padborg in southern Denmark; the facility will produce approximately 4.4 million litres of eSAF per year (Biofuels International, 2024) |
First large- scale SAF storage | DCC & Shell Aviation | In September 2023, a record quantity of SAF was supplied at Oiltanking Copenhagen’s terminal at Prøvestenen, with an aim to establish a large inventory of SAF. This storage facility will act as the central hub for ensuring a consistent and reliable supply of SAF to meet the needs of key stakeholders across the Danish aviation sector (Mabanaft, 2023) (Flightchic, 2023) |
Pilot SAF project at Baltic Eagle Wind Farm | Vestas, HeliService, DCC & Shell Aviation Denmark A/S (SAF provider) | The pilot project entails Vestas technicians and jack-up vessel crew using helicopters partly powered by SAF to transport themselves to and from the Baltic Eagle wind farm during the construction phase of 50 offshore wind turbines. The project is scheduled to take place in September 2024. (Navingo, 2024) (Vestas, 2024) |
Outlook
Like many globally, the Danish SAF industry is still in its nascent stages. However, with targeted policy support, a natural endowment of renewable energy and a long history of successful biofuel technology development, the sector is uniquely positioned to capitalise on the market opportunity presented by SAF and the decarbonization of a notably hard-to-abate sector.
Investor sentiment already reflects this. Several landmark projects are well underway in Denmark, some of which are set to reach commercial operations by 2024, with several more announced across research, development and construction following the continued policy support provided by both the Danish government and EU.
Cost remains a key barrier to SAF’s viability in the long term, with SAF priced at 2.0x – 5.0x its traditional, carbon-intensive alternative and fuel making up approximately 20.0% of an airline’s cost base. Despite this, several airlines have committed to SAF adoption and carbon emissions reduction targets as they come under increasing pressure to decarbonize and align with IATA objectives.
Whilst the rollout of SAF production facilities is expected to continue, producing cheaper SAF is paramount if the industry is to have a subsidy- free future. Government support has been and will continue to be, an essential enabler of the research and development required to ensure SAF is commercially viable in the long term.
SAF demand in Italy [k ton; 2023-2030]
