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2025

Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Report

Regional Market Overviews

Netherlands

The Netherlands has emerged as a European frontrunner in the SAF market, being one of the few countries worldwide where large-scale SAF production is taking place. The country’s strong focus on sustainability, existing chemical industry cluster with deep biorefining expertise, and robust logistics infrastructure make it an ideal location for SAF production. The Dutch government’s ambitious goals to blend 14.0% SAF into aviation fuel by 2030 and 100.0% by 2050 have created an environment conducive to SAF innovation and adoption.

The Netherlands’ commitment to SAF is evident through its increasing investment activity and a robust pipeline of SAF projects that are to be developed, constructed, and operated over the next 5 years. The fact that companies like Shell and Neste are increasingly focusing on developing and expanding their SAF production capabilities demonstrates this. While there are significant opportunities, the SAF industry in the Netherlands also faces challenges, including the high cost of production and the need for technological advancements to make SAF more economically viable. However, ongoing investments, government support, and strong industry collaboration are helping to address these challenges.

GDP (Current Prices) USD (2023)

1,117 Bn

Real GDP Growth Forecast (2024-2028)

1.50%

10-year Govt Bond Yield (12-month rolling average)

2.78

Country Credit Rating

AAA

Average Daily Flights

1,521

Existing Fuel Consumption

3.76 million metric tons

Usage Mandate

14% SAF by 2030, and 100% by 2050

Projected SAF Capacity Under Development (MT/Year)
777,780 by 2027
Policy Support
Dutch government’s €20m investments for the construction of SAF plant in Rotterdam which is expected to produce 50,000 tons of SAF annually once fully operational.
Source: IMF, Fred Economic Data, S&P Global, Knoema, EurocontrolI

Aviation Industry Backdrop

The Netherlands is one of the leading players in the global aviation industry. According to the Dutch Bureau of Statistics, 71.3 million passengers travelled via airports in the Netherlands in 2023, an increase of 16.0% over 2022, but still below pre-pandemic levels (New Zealand Foreign Affairs & Trade, 2024). In 2023, the total number of commercial flights amounted to 505,989, marking an increase of 9.0% over 2022. In the first five months of 2024, the total number of flights amounted to 214,271, thereby reaching c.42.0% of annual 2023 numbers (Netherlands, 2024).

Note: KEV stands for Estimation under The Climate and Energy Outlook (2022)

In comparison to 2022, CO2 emissions in the aviation sector increased by 11.0% in 2023 (NL Times, 2024). A report from the Netherlands Aerospace Centre estimated that the nation’s aviation activity accounted for 1.2% of total global emissions from aviation, and that 96.0% of the nation’s CO2 was generated at Schipol airport. Additionally, the report states that 80.0% of all Dutch flights were intra-EU and contributed to about 20.0% of total aviation CO2 emissions, whereas 15.0% of the longest distance flights (over 5,000 km) were responsible for 75.0% of emissions (Greenair Communications, 2024). The Dutch aviation sector is projected to grow from 71.0 million passengers in 2023 to between 98.0 and 138.0 million in 2050, although the growth rate will be significantly lower than pre-2019 levels (Hilbers, 2024). The projected revenue for the flight market in the Netherlands is estimated to reach US$3.4 billion by 2024. Furthermore, the market is expected to exhibit a CAGR of 3.7% between 2024 and 2029, resulting in a projected market volume of US$4.1 billion by 2029 (Statista, 2024). Accordingly, the demand for jet fuel in the Netherlands is expected to continue increasing due to the rise in air travel and the expansion of airline fleets. However, demand dynamics will also be influenced by various factors, such as efficiency improvements, the adoption of SAF, and regulatory mandates. In general, although traditional jet fuel demand will continue to grow, the increased focus on SAF and efficiency improvements is likely to moderate this growth. Furthermore, local incentives, such as renewable fuel units (HBEs), have encouraged the use of SAF, thereby displacing jet fuel demand to an extent (Argus Media Group, 2023).
Source: OECD.Stat, 2024

Source: OECD.Stat, 2024
Note: Thousand tonnes of CO2-equivalent

Policy Regulation

The Netherlands is committed to reducing its carbon emissions in line with the European Union’s targets and the Paris Agreement. The Dutch government’s target to blend 14.0% SAF into aviation fuel by 2030 puts the country ahead of the already ambitious EU targets to achieve 6.0% SAF by 2030. To support its short- and long-term targets, the government has introduced various policies and incentives (Invest in Holland, 2024).

The national policy focuses on voluntary agreements to limit emissions, restrictions on noise pollution, and the taxation of air travel (Hilbers, 2024). In January 2024, 31 parties active within the Dutch aviation industry presented their joint vision for a Future-Proof Aviation for the Netherlands, including 10 concrete commitments. A constructive discussion was held among the group and members of Parliament and policymakers regarding, among other things, scaling up the production of sustainable fuels (KLM, 2024) (Agreement, 2024).

The Dutch government has introduced tax breaks and subsidies to incentivise SAF adoption. KLM Royal Dutch Airlines, for instance, has taken advantage of these incentives and has committed to using SAF on all flights from Amsterdam to Los Angeles starting 2024. The government has also invested €20.0 million in a SAF plant in Rotterdam, a collaboration with SkyNRG, that will produce 50,000.0 tons of SAF per year once it is fully operational (SAF Investor, 2023).

As part of its efforts to reduce CO2 emissions, the government tripled air passenger taxes starting in January 2023 (€26.43 per passenger, per flight), representing an effective increase of €18.48 over 2022 (Schengen News, 2023). As of 1 January 2024, the travel tax was again revised to €29.05, representing a further increase of €2.62 over 2023 (Transavia, n.d.). The tax increase was approved by the government on 21 December 2023 with the aim of using part of the revenue to make aviation more sustainable and reduce its environmental impact (ch-aviation GmbH, n.d.).

Dutch airport operators are also gradually aligning themselves with national requirements as a result of the Dutch government’s ambitious SAF mandates. Rotterdam The Hague Airport (RTHA) set a minimum goal of blending 8.0% SAF beyond the European target of 6.0% as of 2024 (SAF Investor, 2023). Amsterdam Airport Schiphol is also taking steps to decarbonise its ground operations by 2030. The airport is part of the EU-funded TULIPS project, which aims to reduce carbon emissions from European airports through the implementation of innovative, sustainable technologies (CORDIS, 2024).

Market Opportunity

The Netherlands provides a robust, synergistic ecosystem to support diverse types of operations and plentiful partnership opportunities. Within the Dutch chemical ecosystem, several companies are already delivering SAF to customers, while others are building projects that are expected to become operational within the next few years ( Netherlands Foreign Investment Agency, 2024).

One key area of opportunity lies in harnessing the Netherlands’ abundant domestic renewable energy resources, particularly offshore wind. The country’s strong focus on renewable energy and extensive infrastructure makes it an ideal location for eFuel technologies like power-to-liquid SAF production. Several projects are underway to leverage this abundant renewable energy for SAF production, thereby presenting opportunities for investors and developers to enter the market.

Another crucial aspect of the Dutch SAF market is research and development. Dutch companies and research institutions are at the forefront of SAF technology development, with organizations like SkyNRG, actively involved in various projects and collaborations. The Dutch government and the European Union are providing substantial funding for SAF research and development projects to drive innovation and improve the commercial viability of SAF, thereby creating opportunities for technology providers and research institutions.

Airline initiatives also play a significant role in the Dutch SAF market. Major airline companies such as KLM and Transavia are actively involved in SAF projects, forming alliances with fuel producers to secure supplies and reduce carbon emissions. For example, in November 2023, KLM invested in DG Fuels to support the development of its Louisiana- based SAF plant, securing an option to purchase up to 75,000.0 tons of SAF annually over a multi-year period beginning in 2029 (Biofuels International, 2023). These airline initiatives present opportunities for SAF producers and suppliers to establish long-term partnerships and secure offtake agreements.

Government and EU funding is another key driver of the Dutch SAF market. The Dutch government, in conjunction with EU funding programs like Horizon Europe and the European Green Deal, is providing substantial financial support to SAF projects. These funds aim to incentivise market operators and stakeholders, ensuring that the Netherlands remains competitive in the global SAF market. This funding support creates opportunities for companies and research institutions to access capital and accelerate the development of SAF technologies and production facilities.

As the SAF industry is still in its early stages, collaborations and partnerships are becoming increasingly common, allowing for the diversification of risk and pooling of resources. The Netherlands’ strong SAF supportive ecosystem makes it an attractive location for such collaborations. Investors and industry players can explore opportunities to form strategic partnerships and joint ventures to accelerate the development and commercialization of SAF in the Netherlands.

Major e-SAF Projects in the Pipeline

Company Particulars
Shell After supplying KLM with 500.0 litres of certified synthetic kerosene in 2021, the company is continuing the work closely with partners to further develop synthetic kerosene and is involved in projects in the Netherlands to produce synthetic kerosene (Shell, n.d.)
Synkero (KLM, Port of Amsterdam, City of Amsterdam, and Schiphol Group) Launched in 2021, project Synkero aims to develop a commercial scale facility in the port of Amsterdam to produce E-SAF from green hydrogen and CO2. The facility is scheduled to be completed in 2027, with an aim of producing 50,000.0 tons of E-SAF annually (SKYNRG, n.d.)
INERATEC, Zenith Energy Terminals Ineratec and Zenith collaborated to build a Power-to-Liquid (PtL) plant in the Port of Amsterdam. The plant is scheduled to be completed in 2027, with a target of producing up to 35,000.0 tonnes of eFuels per year (Industry & Energy, 2023)
GreenCo GreenCo aims to convert its existing facilities to support biofuel production, leveraging advanced technologies to ensure high efficiency and sustainability
DutchFuel DutchFuel, is investing in SAF production through partnerships with technology providers and research institutions. With its extensive refinery network, it plans to produce SAF, contributing to the country’s overall production capacity
Shell Shell is building a plant in Rotterdam where it aims to deliver immense quantities of Hydrotreated Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA)-based SAF by 2025. Rotterdam The Hague Airport (RTHA) has signed a long-term agreement with the company to supply SAF for all refueling aircrafts
Neste Neste is investing in expanding its Rotterdam refinery to produce more SAF and renewable diesel
Zaffra South African Sasol and Denmark- based Topsoe are teaming up in the Netherlands to bring SAF to market through their joint venture Zaffra
Gunvor Gunvor has partnered with VARO Energy to build a large-scale SAF manufacturing facility in Rotterdam
Koole Terminals Koole Terminals, a Dutch logistics and energy company, is expanding distillation capacity to triple SAF production by 2025 ( Netherlands Foreign Investment Agency, 2024)
Source: Shell, Skynrg, Industry&Energy, Netherlands Foreign Investment Agency

Outlook

The Netherlands offers a thriving ecosystem of firms and research institutions pursuing SAF solutions, enabling it to support the global aviation industry’s goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. Its extensive logistics infrastructure enables more efficient operations, while Dutch chemical expertise and talent fuel the future commercialization of SAF in the region and worldwide ( Netherlands Foreign Investment Agency, 2024).

However, all current SAF capacity is being sold in long-term contracts and unlocking supply remains a key issue for the Dutch market rather than demand. To boost SAF usage in commercial aviation, companies must focus on diverse operations, including production, logistics, R&D for innovation, and headquarters for coordinating supply chains, commodity trading, and business growth ( Netherlands Foreign Investment Agency, 2024).

Furthermore, additional financial incentives should be made available for SAF technology pathways other than HEFA. HEFA is currently the least costly SAF pathway, and the other technologies will have difficulty reaching commercial scale without support. Additionally, new SAF technologies are marked by investment uncertainties. For example, Shell’s Rotterdam SAF project, planned originally for commissioning in 2026, has been delayed with the development work being temporarily paused by the company to address project delivery and ensure future competitiveness given changing market conditions (Shell, 2024).

Hydrogen is emerging as an alternative fuel option in aviation. There is policy support to promote the ongoing technology demonstration projects. Depending on commercial viability, such fuel options can emerge as a competitive option to SAF over time. The Dutch public-private partnership Hydrogen Aircraft Powertrain and Storage System (HAPSS) aims to build a commercial passenger aircraft that uses liquid green hydrogen as fuel. It is expected that a lab- scale version of the system will be available by 2025, and several commercial flights will take place by 2028. This HAPSS project is part of the Aviation in Transition innovation program for which the Netherlands National Growth Fund allocated €383.0 million (Agro & Chemistry, 2022).

Creating sub-targets, incentives, and CfD mechanisms can play a crucial role in the development of these technologies. On the other hand, it is paramount for the aviation industry to focus on feedstock diversification to meet the growing demand for biobased fuels, materials and chemicals and to secure a competitive market for sustainable feedstocks. This will in turn help the Netherlands to secure a domestic SAF market, thereby mitigating the risks associated with SAF imports (WDB, 2021).