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2023

Global Solar PV Market Report

Key Regional Markets

Finland

Solar PV Capacity

0.59 GW

GDP (Current Prices) USD (2022)

281.05bn

GDP Growth Forecast (constant prices) (2023-2027)

1.04%

Currency

Euro

Country Credit Rating (S&P)

AA+

Renewable Energy capacity (2022)

12.1GW

Solar PV Share in Renewables (2022)

5%

Renewable Energy Target

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 60% by 2030 and becoming carbon neutral by 2035

GDP Source: IMF WEO, S&P and IRENA

Finland’s energy system is experiencing rapid transformation primarily due to changes in regulatory landscapes, consumer preferences and technological advancements. The country’s total energy consumption from renewable sources has steadily increased over the past decade, reaching 41.8% in 2022. On June 30, 2022, Prime Minister Sanna Marin’s Government presented the latest National Climate and Energy Strategy to the Finnish Parliament. The plan outlines Finland’s plans for meeting the EU’s climate commitments for 2030 and achieving the targets set up in the Climate Change Act, which calls for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 60% by 2030 and becoming carbon neutral by 2035. The emphasis on renewable energy is thus significantly high. It is in this context that solar PV assumes significance.

Pros

  • Commitment to stabilizing regulation and setting ambitious carbon neutrality targets to generate significant traction in the solar sector

  • An influx of foreign investment observed, along with a shift in public opinion towards more support for renewable technologies

Cons

  • Power transmission connectivity is not adequately placed to meet the upcoming renewable energy capacities

  • The major setbacks for solar technology over the years have been the absence of government strategies and objectives

Renewable Energy Mix

Source: IRENA Renewable Capacity Statistics July 2023

Finland’s energy mix continues to be dominated by hydropower and wind. A low solar energy share in Finland’s renewable energy mix is due to intermittent solar energy availability (day-night and summer- winter cycles). The market therefore relies heavily on wind, hydropower, and bioenergy to generate renewable electricity. The share of wind power has increased by 12% in 2022, displacing hydropower and bioenergy, while the share of solar power has marginally increased by 1%.

Installed Capacity: Status and Trend

Trend in Installed Solar PV Capacity

Trend-in-Installed-Solar-PV-Capacity-MW-Finland-scaled

Source: Preqin Global Report 2023: Private Equity

Finland’s total solar installed capacity has accelerated since 2016. Currently 591MW of solar capacity is connected to the Finnish main grid. From 2016-2022, solar PV installed capacity has increased by 57% CAGR, primarily due to small-scale solar projects (mainly rooftop residential) which have pioneered PV deployment. However, in recent times, corporate interest has picked up as they are embracing the technology on an industrial and utility scale.

Demand Drivers

Finland’s stated climate policy entails a nearly emission-free electricity sector by 2030. Enforcing such a policy roadmap would require a focus on solar as among the renewable power generation options. There are various support measures also in place. Most important among them is investment subsidies granted by the Ministry of Employment and the Economy and Business Finland. A total of €82.3 million in investment subsidies were granted for 632 PV installations in 2022. Traditionally, subsidies have been 15% of total project costs for conventional technologies, and 19-20% for new technologies. PV systems installed by agricultural companies are also eligible for investment subsidies of up to 35% from Centres for Economic Development, Transport, and the Environment. Individuals are eligible for a tax credit for the labour component of the PV system installation. The sum is up to 40% of the total labour cost, including taxes, resulting up to about 10-15% of the total PV system cost.

The Finnish energy transition is largely based on decentralised electrification of energy-intensive sectors such as heating and transportation. It has been a strength in terms of energy independence, which is of course crucial today and will likely continue to drive demand for green electricity in the future. Solar panels are becoming more frequent, as they are being installed in grocery stores, offices and public buildings.

The Finnish government has encouraged traditional industrial companies and new technologies, such as data centres, to use more renewable energy. Consequently, corporate PPAs are experiencing a strong boom, driven by sustainability concerns. The PPA market, however, is dominated mainly by wind and hydropower projects due to PV’s small share of the energy mix. In spite of this, solar PPAs are poised for growth due to their accessibility and proximity to consumption points.

Solar PV research and development activities are picking up among various universities and research institutes. The research and development work at universities and research institutes is mainly funded by the Academy of Finland and Business Finland, which also finance company-driven development and demonstration projects. Universities across the country are actively researching multi-junction silicon solar cells based on III-V semiconductors, perovskite solar cells, organic photovoltaic (OPV) and atomic layer deposition (ALD) technologies. Among the best examples of this is VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, which is active in integrating solar energy into buildings and energy systems. In addition to developing roll-to-roll printing and coating processes for photovoltaics, VTT is exploring new applications for perovskite solar cells and organic photovoltaics.

Market Opportunity

Compared to its Nordic peers, Finland’s geopolitical location is more advantageous for solar PV plants. The major advantage is its low atmospheric temperature, which makes solar PV cells more efficient. Moreover, the economic competitiveness of solar power has improved over the last few years, and this trend is expected to continue.
Investors and the developers are finding greater scope in the Finnish solar power market, that otherwise faces rather stiff competition against wind energy. In a major development, renewable company OX2 has acquired the project rights to the solar power project in Huittinen, Finland, from the Finnish solar power developer SAJM Holding Oy. The planned capacity will be 475MW, making it one of the largest solar farms in Finland.
Off-grid systems dominated the Finnish PV market for a long time. Approximately 22MW of off-grid PV capacity was installed in more than 55,000 homes by the end of 2021. However, the number of grid-connected PV systems has steadily increased since 2010, and the installed grid- connected PV capacity has almost doubled in 2020-2021. The number of companies preparing multi-megawatt PV plants has also increased over the past few years. A key example would be renewable firm Helen, which has acquired a -turn-key 206MWp solar power plant located in Kalanti, Uusikaupunki, in south-west Finland.

Businesses are currently interested in plants being implemented on land that is difficult to repurpose, such as decommissioned peatlands. There is an increasing interest in combining PV with wind power production in order to reduce the variation in power production, to use a common infrastructure, and to reduce project costs. Furthermore, the integration of power storage in PV plants is also being heavily considered. In an innovative technology breakthrough, Finnish companies Polar Night Energy and Vatajankoski have built the world’s first operational “sand battery”, which provides a low-cost and low-emissions way to store renewable energy.
There are multiple solar development associations in Finland which not only promote the development of solar energy but also provide financial support for PV deployment. An example is Finnish solar power developer’s association called Auringosta Energiaa, which plans to invest more than €10 billion in solar energy in Finland during next few years.

Outlook

Source: BNEF Global Wind Market Outlook

One of the major setbacks for solar technology over the years has been the absence of government strategies and objectives. As a result, solar PV is rather viewed as an energy technology that can be used to enhance the energy efficiency of buildings by generating electricity for self-consumption. However, Finland’s commitment to stabilizing regulation and setting ambitious carbon neutrality targets is generating significant traction in the solar sector. As a result, grid-connected PV systems have gradually become more popular in recent years.

An influx of foreign investment has been noticed, along with a shift in public opinion towards more support for renewable technologies. At present, there are fewer than ten industrial-scale solar power plants in Finland with plenty of pending projects, mainly in southern Finland. According to Fingrid, solar energy production capacity in the country will increase more than tenfold by 2030, to approximately 7GW.

Despite market optimism, some factors could be barriers to growth. For instance, the power transmission connectivity is not adequately placed to meet the upcoming renewable energy capacities. In order to address this, the country’s transmission system operator (TSO), Fingrid, is planning capacity addition in the bulk power transmission assets. The TSO’s Grid Development Plan, 2022-2031, shows a planned investment spending of €2 billion for both new capacity and upgrades of existing ones.

Apart from implementation challenges, the future of Finnish solar PV sector will also be shaped by the relative competitive position of renewable energy technologies. Commercial feasibility of solar PV against other renewable technologies would be key in this regard.