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2023

Global Solar PV Market Report

Key Regional Markets

Germany

Solar PV Capacity

66.55GW

GDP (Current Prices) USD (2022)

4,075.40bn

GDP Growth Forecast (constant prices) (2023-2027)

1.22%

Currency

Euro

Country Credit Rating (S&P)
AAA
Renewable Energy capacity (2022)

148.4GW

Solar PV Share in Renewables (2022)

45%

Renewable Energy Target

2030 targets to achieve 80% share of renewable in power generation

GDP Source: IMF WEO, S&P and IRENA

Germany is one of the largest renewable energy producers globally, with wind and solar energy dominating the renewable energy mix in the country, contributing a 45% share equally in 2022. Germany continues to hold on to its top spot as the largest solar market in Europe with a total installed solar PV capacity of ~66.6GW, producing about 62TWh of solar power in 2022. Since the end of 2021, the new coalition government has been making significant efforts to accelerate the deployment of renewables to keep the country on track with its 2030 targets to achieve 80% share of renewable in power generation.

Pros

  • Increased price caps for the auctions for onshore wind and solar energy in an effort to make renewable energy tenders more attractive

  • Rooftop solar, both residential and C&I segments, expected to make the largest contribution

Cons

  • Distorted costs for grid connections, and sluggish permission and grid connection processes

  • Lag in terms of deploying front of the meter battery storage

Renewable Energy Mix

Source: IRENA Renewable Capacity Statistics 2023

In Germany, wind and solar share an equal percentage of the renewable energy mix. There has been an increase of 3% (45% in 2022) in the solar sector, contributing towards the energy mix as compared to the previous year (42% in 2021). The new coalition government has revised its target to achieve an 80% share of renewable in power generation by 2030. This was previously set at 65%. The current government’s climate plan and the European energy crisis accelerated the demand for solar power installations in 2022, with increasing appetite from the residential sector in solar PV adoption.

Installed Capacity: Status and Trend

Trend in Installed Solar PV Capacity

Trend-in-Installed-Solar-PV-Capacity-MW-Germany-scaled
Source: IRENA Renewable Capacity Statistics 2023
In 2022, capacity additions of Solar PV increased by 26% annually, with 7.2GW of new installations added to the grid, reaching a cumulative total of ~66.6GW. This growth can be attributed to the significant increase in roof-mounted installations for the residential segment, which rose by 40% to nearly 3GW. However, installations on commercial building roofs declined to just over 1.2GW. Additionally, large ground-mounted installations increased by 70% to 2.4GW for projects supported under the Renewable Energy Act (EEG) and by 22% to 0.8GW for installations built under power purchase agreements (PPA) outside the EEG support scheme.

Demand Drivers

Germany’s efforts towards renewables were further spurred by the fossil fuel crisis in the aftermath of Russia’s Ukraine invasion. There is a strong push on the policy side too The draft “Easter Package,” released in July 2022, includes proposed reforms to the Renewable Energy Act (EEG), amendments to energy industry law, and measures to expedite power transmission grid development. It also aims to increase tender volumes for wind and solar projects and introduce contracts for difference (CfD The adoption of EEG 2023 incorporates several provisions to facilitate faster deployment of solar energy. The adoption of EEG 2023 incorporates several provisions to facilitate faster deployment of solar energy. For instance, it encourages full rooftop utilization for solar PV by allowing rooftop PV system owners to choose a smaller feed-in tariff while using some of their rooftop-generated power themselves or receiving additional remuneration on top of the standard feed-in tariff if they feed in 100% of their rooftop power. Households that decide to export all solar electricity to the grid will receive the full feed-in bonus of €0.048/kWh, raising total remuneration to €0.134/kWh.

The amended remuneration scheme has been particularly attractive to the investors with little or no self-consumption needs and in turn encourages them to have maximum usage of available roof space. The law also revoked the limitation to sell electricity to the grid for mid-size rooftop PV systems, implemented by the earlier government. The new government also presented a new package that included an increase in solar capacity, to be allocated through tenders, and the mandatory installation of PV systems in all commercial buildings. The solar obligation for commercial buildings stems from several German states deciding to require solar installations for new buildings. As of 1 January 2022, North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) and Baden- Württemberg are the first two German states to implement a solar-PV obligation for certain construction projects. The states of Berlin, Hamburg, Rhineland-Palatinate, Bavaria, Schleswig-Holstein, and Lower Saxony have adopted similar laws introducing the solar PV obligation from 2023 onwards.

Support in terms of tax benefits for small-scale solar is also in place. For example, under the Annual tax Act 2022, operators of PV systems with an output of up to 30KW on a single-family home or commercial property will no longer have to pay income tax on the electricity yield from the beginning of 2023. This tax exemption also applies to multi-family houses and mixed-use properties owning a PV system with an output of 15kW. In addition, the value-added tax (VAT) will no longer be due on the purchase, import, and installation of PV systems and energy storage systems.

Germany’s Federal Network Agency “Bundesnetzagentur” has increased the price caps for the auctions for onshore wind and solar energy in 2023 in an effort to make renewable energy tenders more attractive and draw stronger interest following the sharp drop in bids observed in 2022. As a result, the country’s first solar auction of 2023 was oversubscribed with 347 bids, totalling 2.87GW submitted for a tendering quantity of 1.95GW of ground mounted and non-building solar systems.

Market Opportunity

The renewable sector of Germany received a major boost when European Commission approved the German government’s €28 billion support scheme for renewable energy in December 2022. This scheme is designed to accelerate the adoption of wind and solar power and will replace an existing renewables support scheme, running until 2026. Notably, the country has a broader plan to spend up to €200 billion in subsidies to shield consumers and businesses from soaring energy costs.

In Germany, the growth of solar PV installed capacity is anticipated to be primarily driven by rooftop solar installations, encompassing both residential and commercial and industrial (C&I) segments. Additionally, ground-mounted facilities such as Agri-PV and residential battery storage get increased importance. A study by the transport and infrastructure ministry (BMVI) estimates that an additional 150GW of solar capacity can be installed in buildings in the country.

Germany, being the largest importer of Russian gas before Ukraine war, has been at the epicentre of the energy crisis in Europe. It is now leading the charge in the energy transition in Europe to meet the energy demand of its massive industrial sector. Big companies are investing in the latest technologies to ramp up the adoption of Solar PV. Meyer Burger is looking to commercialize solar panels using perovskite tandem cells as it ramps up production in Germany as these cells increase efficiency and generates more power.

The German government is also planning to use CfD (Contracts for Difference) as a funding tool to reduce industrial carbon dioxide emissions. The draft plan proposes that companies committed to cutting carbon dioxide emissions by more than half using innovative technologies could be eligible for 10-year CfDs.

Outlook

Source: BNEF Global PV Market Outlook

The government’s vision to exit coal and nuclear-based power generation by 2030 from the previous target of 2038 led to multiple policy framework alterations. As the leading segments in the renewable energy sector, wind and solar will lead the way towards a zero-emission target. However, the pace of capacity expansion has been inadequate. In order to make a strong stride towards meeting the country’s long-term ambition, barriers such as distorted costs for grid connections, and sluggish permission and grid connection processes need to be addressed first.

A top priority among these is to expedite the approval process. The solar parks need around 30 different permits before construction. Thus, clear guidelines for solar expansion need to be drafted for a rapid deployment of the technology.

Similar support measures are required for the C&I sector as well. These would include removing funding caps and investment barriers for an accelerated expansion of the segment.

While Germany may have lagged behind some of its European peers in terms of deploying front-of-the-meter battery storage, especially in comparison to countries like the UK and France, the residential sector in Germany has consistently demonstrated strength. Homeowners in Germany have shown a growing interest in backing up their residential PV systems, especially in response to high retail power prices. Over the next 5 years, Germany is expected to continue to be the key European market for home batteries.

Additionally, the PPA market is anticipated to experience strong growth in the coming years. Given the active participation of utilities, large investment funds, and private investors in this segment, PPA-based projects hold significant importance for the development of solar energy in Germany. The steep decline in solar power makes fixed-price PPAs an attractive proposition for offtakers, especially as conventional energy prices continue to be high and volatile.