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2023

Global Solar PV Market Report

Key Regional Markets

Italy

Solar PV Capacity

25.07GW

GDP (Current Prices) USD (2022)

2,012.01bn

GDP Growth Forecast (constant prices) (2023-2027)

0.96%

Currency

Euro

Country Credit Rating (S&P)

BBB

Renewable Energy capacity (2022)

59.9GW

Solar PV Share in Renewables (2022)

44%

Renewable Energy Target
Increase the share of renewable energy in the country’s total energy mix to at least 30% by 2030 and 55% in electricity generation

Italy is one of the major renewable markets in Europe. Solar PV has always played a crucial role in shaping the country’s renewable sector. In order to adhere to the targets set at European level by the “Fit-for-55” measures’ package, renewable energy in Italy will need to cover at least 65% of end consumption in the electricity sector by 2030, compared to the 55% initially set in the National Integrated Energy and Climate Plan (PNIEC), for a total of 70GW of additional power.

This translates into an annual capacity addition of 10GW from now until 2030, marking a substantial increase from the roughly 3GW installed in 2022. A major portion of this capacity will be generated from the country’s wind and solar assets, which are the most mature of all other technologies. The projects planned by grid operator Terna would make a significant contribution to achieving this goal.

Pros

  • Ambitious targets by the National Energy Strategy (NES)

  • Notable growth in recent clean energy auctions in terms of the number of tenders received and expanded investment value

Cons

  • Slowdown of solar deployment in the residential segment due to discontinuation of tax relief scheme
  • Insufficient grid infrastructure hindering the solar PV sector from growing to its full potential

Renewable Energy Mix

Source: IRENA Renewable Capacity Statistics April 2023

According to TERNA the year 2022 brought considerable market activity following an average growth period. The share of solar PV in the renewable energy mix increased by 4% year over year, diminishing the share of hydropower by 5%. According to TERNA, the maximum capacity that came online was in Q4 with 844MW, up from 627MW, 634MW and 377MW in the three preceding quarters, respectively. Solar systems were mostly installed in the northern regions of the country, while systems in the center and south are struggling, despite high levels of solar radiation.

The five most solar rich regions are Lombardy, with 3.2GW cumulative installed capacity (having installed 438MW in 2022), followed by Puglia with 3.1GW, Emilia Romagna with 2.5GW, Veneto with 2.5GW and Piedmont with 2.0GW.

Installed Capacity: Status and Trend

Trend in Installed Solar PV Capacity

Trend in Installed Onshore Wind Capacity - Denmark

Source: IRENA Renewable Capacity Statistics April 2023

Italy finally returned to Europe’s GW Club in 2022 with the installation of 2.5GW of new PV systems. The capacity installation matches with 2010, when the country’s solar market was the world’s strongest following the introduction of the second feed-in tariff (FIT). A 164% increase in solar PV installations was reported in Italy at the end of last year, from 944MW in 2021 to 2.5GW in 2022, taking Italy’s cumulative solar PV capacity to 25.1GW. Official statistics from TERNA show that the total number of built PV plants connected to the grid amounts to 1,221,045, of which 205,806 were built in 2022 alone.

The hike in capacity additions can be directly related to government efforts, specifically the Superbonus 110 tax relief scheme which radically facilitated solar deployment in the residential segment. In 2022, Italy’s residential (PV systems below 12kW) deployment proved to be the major market driver with around 1,103MW of new capacity, representing 49% of the total PV installed capacity. Commercial and industrial (C&I) systems ranging in size from 20kW to 1MW accounted for 28%, or 678MW, while utility scale plants more than 1MW accounted for 23% or 571MW, representing a 467% increase on an annual basis.

Demand Drivers

The Italian government has been proactive in promoting renewable energy, with the National Energy Strategy (NES) setting ambitious targets. A commitment to reach 71.2GW of solar capacity by 2030 has fuelled the growth of the solar industry and attracted investor interest. With the DL Energia decree, the Italian authorities introduced new provisions aimed at reducing energy bills for households and businesses. As part of these new provisions, permits for installing commercial rooftop PV systems with a capacity between 50kW and 200kW are simplified significantly, which can be operated under Italian net metering, called “Scambio sul posto.” A further €267 million ($294 million) has been allocated by the Italian government to assist small and medium-sized enterprises in deploying solar panels for self-consumption.

Investor sentiment is boosted from the notable growth observed in recently held clean energy auctions in terms of the number of tenders received and expanded investment value. The state-owned energy service system operator Gestore dei Servizi Energetici (GSE) awarded 94.2MW of solar capacity across 15 locations with PV projects ranging in size from 2.2MW to 15.8MW. The developers received discounts ranging from 2% to 2.12% off the auction ceiling price of €0.065 ($0.070)/kWh. The GSE awarded 294MW of solar capacity in September with discounts ranging from 2% to 2.50% from the auction ceiling price of €0.065 ($0.063) per kWh.

There is a growing demand from the corporate sector for renewable electricity offtake. Unsubsidized solar PV projects are becoming easier to finance thanks to the growth of solar PPAs, which are becoming more common. In a significant development, Enfinity Global signed a 10-year solar power purchase agreement with Statkraft in January 2023. Under this agreement, Enfinity will procure 191GWh of clean electricity annually, sourced from a 112MW utility-scale solar power portfolio comprising three power plants located in the Viterbo province.

Market Opportunity

The increasing adoption of solar PV technology presents an appealing opportunity for the domestic manufacturing of solar equipment. There is a growing need for panel manufacturing in order to reduce dependence on Chinese imports. In a noteworthy development, Enel, an Italian energy company, unveiled its intentions to expand the capacity of its 3Sun solar panel manufacturing facility in Sicily. It currently has a production capacity of 200MW, which will be increased to 3GW by July 2024. A total investment of €600 million will be made, including €188 million as grants received from the European Commission through the pandemic recovery fund.

There is substantial development in the technology side as well. In addition to bifacial solar panels, the gradual shift to TopCON N-Type, PERC P-Type, and HJT technologies is reducing costs and enhancing power output. N-type and P-type PERC cells offer efficiency over 25%. Estimates indicate that N-type solar modules will account for 20% of the market in 2023. It is expected that solar cells based on silicon and perovskite will improve performance further, as they have been tested to have a revolutionary conversion rate of 32.5%. These advancements are contributing to the growing adoption of solar technology among Italians.

Italy is also exploring ways to combine solar energy production with agriculture in order to increase solar capacity and maximize land use efficiency. With around 50 – 70 thousand hectares of usable agricultural land, the development of agri-voltaics is bound to have a considerable expansion effect. In 2022, the Italian Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Forestry Policies facilitated a €1.5 billion measure to support solar in the agricultural sector, which involves installing 375MW of PV panels on buildings in the sector, including agro-industrial sites. Enel Green Power, an Italian renewable energy company, will begin construction of a 170MW agri-voltaics solar PV plant in March 2023.

Outlook

Source: BNEF Global PV Market Outlook
Note: The above data, as sourced from BNEF, are based on a ‘low’ investment scenario

According to Italia Solare Forum, Italy is expected to significantly overcome the historical permission bottleneck for solar PV power plants in the coming two years, potentially pushing installations to 4GW in 2023 and 8GW in 2024. A major portion of this growth will be attributed to the C&I and utility segments after the slowdown of the residential market due to discontinuation of Superbonus 110. On another positive axis, renewable energy will also benefit from the deployment of over €200 billion of European spending power that could radically improve growth and investment prospects.

The sector will gain further traction through agri-voltaics. As of February 2023, there is a backlog of 19GW of Environmental Impact Assessment requests for agri-voltaic plants over 10MW. Notably, NextEnergy Group company Starlight has initiated a ground-breaking agri-eco-voltaic project in Italy called Land of the Sun. It is currently in the advance stages of development and, when completed, will cover around 140 hectares with an installed capacity of 87MWp. However, there are challenges for the agri-voltaic sector to develop as the deployment of agri-voltaics could be stalled by cost factors, since agri-voltaics are 25% more expensive than traditional PV arrays in the case of permanent crops, and 60% more expensive in the case of arable crops.

Energy-storage coupled with solar PV technology is expected to play a crucial role in Italy’s aim to become independent of Russian gas by the second half of 2024. Thanks to generous incentives and rapid growth in the residential solar sector, energy storage in Italy has boomed because of its ability to reduce the need for gas-fired power plants as must-run capacity, thereby reducing reliance on imported energy. As of September 2022, approximately 1,59,274 storage systems were installed, for a total power of 949MW and a maximum capacity of 1,816MWh. Most units are connected to a photovoltaic plant, 97% of which are residential.

The biggest obstacle in Italy’s solar PV sector to reach its full potential is the insufficient grid infrastructure of the country. In a countermeasure the Ministry of Energy Security has approved 22 projects for adapting and upgrading smart grids, making the grid resilient to integrate and manage new PV capacities. Simultaneously, Terna has presented a 2023 Development Plan, outlining its intentions to invest over €21 billion in the next 10 years, which represents a 17% increase from the previous plan. This plan is designed to promote the integration of renewable energy sources, develop international interconnections, enhance the security and resilience of the electricity system, and invest in grid digitalization.